Earnings Watch Q2 2026: Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Intel & More

Markets have been shaky heading into this earnings season, driven by three major forces: escalating US-Iran shipping tensions spiking oil prices, a deliberate rotation out of overextended AI and chip stocks, and hawkish Fed comments pushing rate-cut expectations further out.

The fact that financials went up while tech tanked tells you everything you need to know: this wasn't a panic, it was a massive macro repositioning.

Now, the very tech giants that took the hit are about to report. Tesla and Alphabet kick things off on July 22, followed by Intel on July 23 and Microsoft on July 29. Over the next five weeks, nine key earnings reports will either prove this sell-off was an overreaction or trigger the next leg down.

Below is your complete Q2 2026 earnings calendar with consensus estimates, the exact metrics that will move each stock, and how you can trade these moves as Equity Perps on BitMEX.

Q2 2026 Earnings Calendar

Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings

Earnings date: August 26, 2026

EPS estimate: $2.07–$2.09

Revenue estimate: Q2 Data centre consensus ~$80B+

NVIDIA reports last among the major tech names this cycle, which means it will either confirm or contradict the AI spending narrative that the rest of the sector has already laid out. Q1 FY2027 revenue came in at $81.6B, up 85% year-over-year, with Data centre alone contributing $75.2B. The trajectory of EPS tells the fuller story: from $0.60 in Q1 FY2025 to $1.87 in Q1 FY2027 — a 212% increase in nine quarters.

The apparent paradox is the stock’s positioning. NVDA trades at roughly $197 with a forward P/E of approximately 22× — near a decade low — yet H1 2026 sector returns tell a different story: AMD is up 70%, Micron 45%, Intel 13%, and NVDA just 5%. Capital has been rotating into the names that lagged during the initial AI trade, leaving NVDA as the relative underperformer despite superior fundamental delivery.

Watch For

• Q2 Data centre revenue vs Q1’s $75.2B: A sequential step-down would raise questions about whether Blackwell demand is pulling forward from future quarters or whether hyperscaler orders are genuinely durable.

• Q3 guidance: The forward look typically matters more than the beat itself for NVDA. Any guidance below the current $83–$85B Street estimate would send the stock lower even on a clean Q2 print.

• China H20 and Blackwell export approvals: Any regulatory commentary or incremental license approvals for China shipments could unlock a material upside revision to the addressable market.

The forward P/E compression to 22× makes NVDA the most interesting risk/reward in the group on a valuation basis. Trade NVDA 24/7 on BitMEX, even when markets are closed.

Tesla (TSLA) Earnings

Earnings date: July 22, 2026

EPS estimate: $0.48

Revenue estimate: $25.5B

Tesla’s Q2 deliveries are already on the table – 480,126 units, up 25% year-over-year and an 18% beat against expectations. That removes one variable from the earnings call, but it also raises the stakes for what comes after the volume number: margin quality and the economics of the autonomous bets.

Tesla’s annual EPS peaked at $4.30 in 2023 and has fallen to $1.09 today — a 75% drop. The stock trades at $394, which puts the trailing P/E at 385x.

Normally P/E and EPS move in the same direction. A company earns more, investors pay a higher multiple. Earnings fall, the multiple falls with them. Tesla is doing the opposite — EPS collapsed and the P/E expanded. The market stopped pricing Tesla as a car company and started pricing it as a robotaxi and AI platform.

Watch For

• Automotive gross margin above 17%: The trough was 12.5% in Q1 2025. The recovery to 19.2% in Q1 2026 was the single most important number in that quarter’s report. Sustained margin above 17% signals the pricing cuts have fully cycled through and the cost structure is holding.

• Cybercab production cost and timeline: Any update to unit economics or a concrete volume ramp schedule will be closely scrutinised for whether the headline product can generate real gross profit.

• Robotaxi revenue per mile and fleet utilisation from Austin and Miami: These metrics will appear in some form for the first time this quarter. Even preliminary data will shape how analysts model the autonomous business over the next 12–18 months.

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Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings

Earnings date: July 29, 2026

EPS estimate: $4.33

Revenue estimate: $89.4B

Microsoft enters Q4 FY2026 reporting with one of the cleaner fundamental setups in large-cap tech. Azure growth has re-accelerated from a 26% trough in FY2023 all the way to 40% in Q3 FY2026, a trajectory that had been widely viewed as structurally impaired before the AI workload wave arrived. The AI-specific revenue run rate stands at $37B annually (up 123% year-over-year) with 15 million paid Copilot seats in commercial deployment.

The capital expenditure commitment is the number that continues to attract scrutiny in both directions. Microsoft has guided to $190B in CapEx for FY2026 — a figure that implies either a very deep conviction in the AI demand pipeline or a structurally elevated cost base that will pressure free cash flow for years. Management’s framing of that spend on the call will matter as much as the Q4 numbers themselves.

Watch For

• Azure growth above 38%: The Q3 print of 40% set a high bar. A number below 35% would be treated as a meaningful deceleration by the market regardless of overall revenue.

• Copilot paid seat growth or stall: At 15 million seats, Copilot is generating real revenue but needs to show it is still in the early stages of a large deployment curve.

• Q4 CapEx figure relative to the $40B+ quarterly guidance: Any significant miss against that number would raise questions about whether hyperscaler demand is softening.

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Google (GOOG) Earnings

Earnings date: July 22, 2026

EPS estimate: $2.86–$2.95 (+24% YoY)

Revenue estimate: $120B

Alphabet reports alongside Tesla on July 22, which makes for a packed evening for traders with exposure to both. The primary narrative going into this print is Google Cloud, which has accelerated its growth rate across five consecutive quarters to reach $20.03B in Q1. That trajectory has pushed Cloud operating margin from 17.8% to 32.9% in the space of a year. The backlog disclosure in Q1 was the most striking data point: $462B in unrecognised revenue, which nearly doubled in a single quarter.

Watch For

• Cloud revenue above $21–$22B: The company has guided to approximately $85B in Cloud revenue for full-year 2026, requiring a meaningful step-up from Q1’s $20.03B.

• Search advertising CTR with AI Overviews: Any CTR data will either confirm or reopen the cannibalisation debate that consensus thought was closed.

• Cloud operating margin above 30%: The expansion from sub-20% to above 30% has been the primary driver of total Alphabet earnings upgrades. Any regression would concern analysts.

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Intel (INTC) Earnings

Earnings date: July 23, 2026

EPS estimate: $0.21 (consensus); $0.20 (company guidance)

Revenue estimate: $14.7B

Intel’s Q2 2026 report is the most binary setup in this earnings cycle. Q1 produced an extraordinary result: $0.29 EPS against a $0.01 consensus estimate, a 2,800% beat that triggered a re-rating from approximately $20 to $110 in the twelve months that followed. Q2 is expected to be the first GAAP-profitable quarter after six consecutive quarters of GAAP losses.

Watch For

• GAAP profitability: If Intel delivers its first GAAP profit in six quarters, it opens the door to a different category of institutional ownership.

• Data centre and AI segment growth rate: This division grew 22% in Q1 — the first credible evidence that Intel is capturing enterprise AI buildout. Sustaining or accelerating that growth rate is what justifies the higher stock price.

• Q3 EPS guidance: Management guidance for Q3 will determine whether analysts revise full-year estimates higher and whether the recovery is a one-quarter phenomenon or the beginning of a durable trend.

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Strategy (MSTR) Earnings

Earnings date: July 30, 2026

EPS estimate: $16.85 (range: –$0.08 to +$52.04)

Strategy holds 843,775 BTC, valued at approximately $52.5B at $62,302 per coin. The Q2 story includes an unusual disclosure: Strategy sold 3,588 BTC during the quarter — 2,225 on July 6 and 1,363 on June 30 — crystallising an unrealised loss of $8.32B. Q1 reported an EPS of –$38.25 with a BTC Yield of 9.4%.

The way Strategy makes money isn’t from its software business — it’s from the spread between how the market values its shares and the value of the Bitcoin underneath them. MSTR’s mNAV — the ratio of market cap to Bitcoin holdings value — has fallen from a high of 1.8x over the past 52 weeks to approximately 1.08x today. On June 27, the enterprise mNAV briefly dropped below 1.0x, meaning the market was valuing the entire company at less than the Bitcoin it holds.

On July 6–12, Strategy sold 4.8 million Class A shares to cover preferred stock dividends and debt interest — not to buy Bitcoin. Saylor separately launched a Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index and reported a BTC Yield of 9.5% year-to-date by his own metric.

Watch For

• BTC Yield for Q2: If BTC Yield turns negative, meaning dilution outpaced Bitcoin accumulation on a per-share basis, the core thesis of the MSTR investment case breaks down for the first time since 2020.

• Net BTC change in Q2: The company sold BTC this quarter for the first time in a meaningful way. Whether Q2 was a net add or net reduction to the treasury will be the most debated data point.

• Saylor’s framing of the mNAV compression: At 1.08x mNAV, the premium barely justifies owning MSTR over a Bitcoin ETF. How management addresses this on the call will shape the re-rating narrative.

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Coinbase (COIN) Earnings

Earnings date: July 30, 2026

EPS estimate: $0.12–$0.14

Revenue estimate: $1.35B

Coinbase Q1 2026 had revenue of $1.41B down 31% year-over-year and EPS of –$1.49, but market structure metrics told a different story. Coinbase hit an 8.6% global spot market share, an all-time high, in a quarter when overall crypto trading volumes were soft. The subscription and services segment accounted for 44% of Q1 revenue, with USDC on-platform balances reaching a record $19B.

Watch For

• Subscription and services crossing 50% of total revenue: That threshold would represent a permanent mix shift and could trigger a re-rating toward a fintech multiple.

• Transaction revenue trend: Even modest price appreciation tends to unlock retail trading activity. BTC at $62K vs sub-$60K in Q1 implies some improvement.

• USDC on-platform balance and GENIUS Act impact: Coinbase earns a revenue share from Circle on USDC held in Coinbase accounts — $19B at a record in Q1. Watch whether Q2 on-platform balance grew as the GENIUS Act stablecoin framework advanced; institutional adoption of USDC through Coinbase is the cleanest indicator of that tailwind flowing into Subscription revenue.

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Robinhood (HOOD) Earnings

Earnings date: July 29, 2026

EPS estimate: $0.41–$0.42

Revenue estimate: $1.23B

Robinhood had Q1 revenue of $1.07B miss the $1.14B consensus, driven partly by a 47% drop in crypto trading revenue to $134M. The stock trades around $115, below its 52-week high of $153.86.

The headline number to watch is the event contracts business: Robinhood processed 8.8 billion event contracts in Q1 alone (up 780% from the launch quarter) and this will be the first quarter with full revenue disclosure.

Watch For

• Event contract revenue disclosure: If Q2 event contract revenue exceeds $200M, it represents a genuine narrative shift toward a regulated prediction market operator.

• Crypto revenue recovery: Q1’s 47% YoY decline was the primary miss driver. With Bitcoin prices modestly higher in Q2, even a partial reversal would be positive.

• Robinhood Chain initial metrics: The company launched Robinhood Chain in July 2026. Any commentary on early adoption will be watched for optionality value.

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Circle (CRCL) Earnings

Earnings date: August 11, 2026

EPS estimate: $0.26

Revenue estimate: $3.08B (full year)

Circle’s Q2 print arrives after a 17% single-day crash on July 1 when Open USD launched – a stablecoin backed by Stripe, Visa, and BlackRock. The underlying business remains large: $75.2B in USDC outstanding (+39% YoY), and on-chain transaction volume of $21.5T in Q1 (+263% YoY). Circle currently trades around $68, with Goldman Sachs at a $96 price target and Morgan Stanley at $106.

USDC has grown from $58B at Circle’s June 2025 IPO to $75.2B today — a 29% increase. Over the same period CRCL stock fell from its post-IPO high of ~$200 to $68. The market is pricing competition risk ahead of the fundamentals.

Watch For

• EPS vs investment spending: Q2 estimate is $0.165, down from $0.21 in Q1. Analysts project normalised EPS to fall nearly 50% in 2026 as Circle funds Arc, Circle Payments Network, and global expansion. The question is whether this is a deliberate investment cycle with a clear payoff, or margin erosion without a visible return.

• GENIUS Act and regulatory commentary: Circle stock surged 20% on the CLARITY Act compromise. Any update on US stablecoin legislation is the single biggest re-rating catalyst in either direction. USDC already has MiCA authorisation in Europe and GENIUS Act alignment in the US.

• Open USD competitive response: USDC surpassed Tether in adjusted transaction volume in Q2 — the on-chain data is already public. The watch item is not whether USDC lost share but what Circle is doing about the new competition.

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FAQ

When does NVDA report earnings in 2026?

NVIDIA is scheduled to report its Q2 FY2027 earnings on August 26, 2026. This date falls after the bulk of the tech sector has already reported, meaning NVDA will have the benefit and burden of being the final major read on AI infrastructure spending for the quarter. The current EPS estimate is $2.07–$2.09, with Data centre revenue expected to exceed $80B based on Q1’s $75.2B print. Traders can access NVDA exposure before the print via the NVDA equity perpetual on BitMEX.

What is the NVDA earnings date for Q2 2026?

NVIDIA’s Q2 FY2027 earnings are expected on August 26, 2026, after US market close. NVDA has grown EPS from $0.60 in Q1 FY2025 to $1.87 in Q1 FY2027 — a 212% increase in nine quarters — but the stock has returned only around 5% in H1 2026 while AMD gained 70% and Micron 45%. At a forward P/E of approximately 22×, the valuation is near a decade low for the company.

When does Tesla report Q2 2026 earnings?

Tesla is scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings on July 22, 2026, after US market hours. The company already reported Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles — up 25% year-over-year and an 18% beat against analyst expectations. The focus will shift entirely to automotive gross margin, Cybercab economics, and the first disclosed operating metrics from the Austin and Miami robotaxi deployments.

What is the Tesla earnings date 2026?

Tesla’s earnings date for Q2 FY2026 is July 22, 2026. The stock trades at approximately $394 at a trailing P/E of 385×. Tesla’s TTM EPS has fallen 75% from its 2023 peak of $4.30, which makes the premium valuation dependent on Cybercab and robotaxi timelines being credible. The earnings call, not the delivery number, will determine whether bulls or bears control the next leg of price action.

When does Microsoft report Q4 FY2026 earnings?

Microsoft is expected to report Q4 FY2026 earnings on July 29, 2026. Analysts estimate $4.33 EPS and $89.4B in revenue. The central question is whether Azure continues its re-acceleration to 40% growth or reverts toward 35%. Microsoft has guided to $190B in CapEx for FY2026, and any significant revision to that spend will be closely watched.

When does Intel report Q2 2026 earnings?

Intel is scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026. Q1 2026 produced a remarkable 2,800% beat — $0.29 EPS against a $0.01 estimate — which triggered a stock move from approximately $20 to $110 over twelve months. Q2 is expected to be Intel’s first GAAP-profitable quarter after six consecutive quarters of GAAP losses.

What are the Q2 2026 earnings dates for tech stocks?

The key Q2 2026 tech earnings dates are: Tesla and Alphabet on July 22, Intel on July 23, Microsoft and Robinhood on July 29, Coinbase and Strategy on July 30, Circle on August 11, and NVIDIA on August 26. All dates are after US market close. The most impactful single evening is July 22, when Tesla and Alphabet both report.

Can I trade US stocks on BitMEX?

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All data sourced from company IR pages, SEC filings, MarketBeat, Ahrefs, Reuters, CNBC, and Bloomberg. Analyst estimates reflect consensus at time of writing (July 17, 2026). This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.