SpaceX IPO: Two Ways Traders Can Position for the Largest IPO in History

TL;DR

Biggest IPO ever: SPCX lists on the Nasdaq on 12 June — $135/share, ~$1.77tn valuation, ~$74.4bn raised.

Low-risk arbitrage: BitMEX’s pre-IPO perp – SPCXUSDT – has 0% funding. A Binance-long / BitMEX-short pair around the 10 June rebased pencils to ~3.5% before leverage, with capital locked for days.

Fundamental idea: Long TSLA and short SPCX — not a knock on SpaceX, just the better-priced side of the same Musk-AI theme on current numbers.

The largest IPO in history for SpaceX prices on 12 June, and BitMEX traders don’t have to wait for the opening bell. Two setups are on the table — one mechanical and low-risk, one a fundamental relative-value idea. Here’s how to think about each.

Opportunity 1: The Zero-Funding Rebase Arb

BitMEX has listed a SpaceX pre-IPO perpetual – SPCXUSDT – with 0% funding ahead of the listing. Why this matters: funding is the carry cost of holding a perp, and on a hyped pre-IPO name it would normally bleed a short. With funding at zero, that cost disappears — opening a clean cross-exchange play around Binance’s rebase on 10 June.

A rebase changes the number of units you hold without changing your exposure — like a contract split. The edge exists because Binance’s SPCX pre-IPO contract rebases and BitMEX’s does not. You pre-position so that once Binance scales you up, both legs align.

The trade setup:

Long SPCX on Binance at ~$170, size at 1x of your desired trade amount

Short SPCX on BitMEX at ~$160, size 1.1x of your desired trade amount

After the 10 June rebase, the Binance leg auto-scales to ~1.1x — matching the BitMEX short

Provided Binance price / BitMEX price < 1.1, you sit in theoretical profit space throughout — ~1.5% before leverage on the current spread

The clock helps: SPCX lists 12 June, so even holding for the full spread keeps capital tied up for days, not weeks.

Before you size, know that:

Rebase mechanics differ by venue and can change at short notice — confirm contract specs and the rebase ratio first

The 0% funding is promotional and won’t outlast the listing

Cross-exchange basis can gap against you in thin windows, especially around listing when volatility spikes — maintain margin headroom

Opportunity 2: Long TSLA and Short SPCX

The second idea is a relative-value pair trade rather than a bet against SpaceX itself. SpaceX is a genuinely extraordinary business, and a thin float plus possible index inclusion means it could run hard on debut. But for traders wanting exposure to the Musk-AI theme, there’s a reasonable case that Tesla is the better-priced side of the same coin.

The case for the trade, in brief:

Valuation: SPCX prices at ~94x sales on ~$18.7bn of 2025 revenue. Morningstar’s early-June fair value sat near $780bn — well below the IPO target, showing how wide reasonable views are.

Cap-table optics: Insiders are in near ~$6.48/share vs retail’s $135. The thin float cuts both ways — it can melt up and down fast.

The xAI factor: The February 2026 all-stock merger reshaped the financials. SpaceX was profitable beforehand; the combined entity is now making loss as xAI’s capex (GPUs, data centres) dominates cash flow. Much of the $74.4bn that was raised funds the AI build-out, and the valuation leans on a large, still-nascent AI TAM.

Why TSLA is the cleaner long: Nearer-term, more legible catalysts (FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus), and it sits upstream in Musk’s ecosystem — xAI buys Megapacks, SpaceX is a future Optimus customer.

For a pair trade, this is an attractive setup: own the cash-generative, catalyst-rich name and fund it by shorting the richly-priced one.

TSLA and SPCX: The Numbers

A profitable company generating far more revenue – Tesla – currently trades below a loss-making one. That gap is the asymmetry the pair trade is built on — though it can persist or widen if SpaceX’s AI story catches fire post-listing, so position size and risk management matter.

The Verdict

BitMEX vs Binance rebase arbitrage: The cleaner, lower-risk play — a short-duration edge that exists purely because two venues treat a rebase of a pre-IPO contract differently. Worth taking while the 0% funding window on BitMEX lasts, with respect for basis risk around listing.

TSLA and SPCX pair trade: The higher-conviction idea for those wanting a fundamental angle. Works best if TSLA’s near-term catalysts deliver while SPCX’s premium compresses. Not a claim that SpaceX is a poor business — just that today’s risk/reward looks more favourable on the long-TSLA, short-SPCX side. The thin float and possible index flows mean SPCX can move sharply against you, so size accordingly.

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